RESUMEN
ObjectivesIn December 2020, an unprecedented vaccination programme to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic was initiated worldwide. However, the vaccine provision is currently insufficient for most countries to vaccinate their entire eligible population, so it is essential to develop the most efficient vaccination strategies. COVID-19 disease severity and mortality vary by age, therefore age-dependent vaccination strategies must be developed. Study design/MethodsHere, we use an age-dependent SIERS (susceptible-infected-exposed-recovered-susceptible) deterministic model to compare four hypothetical age-dependent vaccination strategies and their potential impact on the COVID-19 epidemic in Kyrgyzstan. ResultsOver the short-term (until March 2022), a vaccination rollout strategy focussed on high-risk groups (aged >50 years) with some vaccination among high-incidence groups (aged 20-49 years) may decrease symptomatic cases and COVID-19-attributable deaths. However, there will be limited impact on the estimated overall number of COVID-19 cases with the relatively low coverage of high-incidence groups (15-25% based on current vaccine availability). Vaccination plus non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as mask wearing and social distancing, will further decrease COVID-19 incidence and mortality and may have an indirect impact on all-cause mortality. ConclusionsOur results and other evidence suggest that vaccination is most effective in flattening the epidemic curve and reducing mortality if supported by NPIs. In the short-term, focussing on high-risk groups may reduce the burden on the health system and result in fewer deaths. However, the herd effect from delaying another peak may only be achieved by greater vaccination coverage in high-incidence groups.
